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Free Membership Tool
See where your membership lands in five years. Set your joins, churn and revenue per member, and watch the projection update live — including the ceiling your current numbers are heading towards.
Your Membership
Roughly how many you recruit annually at your current pace.
The share of members who leave each year. Steady state lands near 1,000 members.
Subscription plus ancillary spend, per member, per year.
Your Forecast
£300,000
Projected annual revenue · +0% vs today
1,000
Projected members
+0
Net member change
Projected annual revenue by year
You are growing — but the gap between your join rate and churn sets a ceiling. Lowering churn raises it.
Hit this forecast — book a free consultationEstimates only, for planning purposes. Figures are not stored and nothing leaves your browser.
How It Works
Membership growth is a tug of war between two forces: the new members you recruit and the members you lose to churn.
This forecaster models that tension year by year.
Each year it keeps the members you retain — your current base multiplied by one minus your churn rate — and adds the new members you recruit, then values the result at your average revenue per member.
The number that surprises most organisations is the ceiling.
Growth does not continue indefinitely; it settles where annual joins exactly replace annual losses, at roughly joins ÷ churn rate.
Recruit 150 members a year against 15% churn and you plateau near 1,000 members no matter how hard you push acquisition.
The only way to lift that ceiling is to reduce churn — which is why the cost of churn is worth understanding alongside this forecast.
Use it to pressure-test targets.
If the five-year revenue figure falls short of your plan, the model shows whether the faster route is more acquisition or better retention — usually it is retention.
For trade associations and professional bodies alike, the lever that compounds fastest is keeping each cohort longer.
For a realistic churn input, the 2025 Membership Marketing Benchmarking Report puts the median association renewal rate at 84% (around 16% churn) and the first-year renewal rate at just 74% — so newer cohorts churn far faster, and your blended rate depends heavily on how many first-year members you carry.
How We Calculate This
Each year: membersₙ = membersₙ₋₁ × (1 − churn) + new joins · revenue = members × revenue per member · growth ceiling = annual joins ÷ churn rateThe model compounds churn against your whole base each year, which is why growth plateaus at the joins-÷-churn ceiling. Renewal benchmarks below come from nearly 500 associations.
Benchmarks & Sources
Questions & Answers
Retain the previous year’s members (multiply by one minus churn), add new joins, then value the total at average revenue per member. Repeat year on year to see whether joins outpace churn.
Growth plateaus where joins replace losses: joins ÷ churn rate. 150 joins a year at 15% churn settles near 1,000 members. Lowering churn raises the ceiling more efficiently than recruiting harder.
Churn compounds against your whole base every year, while acquisition adds a fixed number. A few points of churn reduction usually delivers more long-term members and revenue, at lower cost.
Model every lever of membership growth.
Book a free consultation and we’ll pinpoint whether acquisition, retention or ancillary revenue is the fastest path to your five-year target.
Book Free Consultation